MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 22, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Here's where the model sees the most value on the MLB board for Tuesday, September 22, 2026.
1. Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — TB +2.5 Strong
The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is TB +2.5, an edge of about 1.8 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.5 runs while the book has hung 2.5. That points to the Over 2.5, with about 6.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
2. St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates — STL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is STL +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.1 runs against the posted 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected STL 4 – PIT 4 · full preview →
3. Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox — CLE +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CLE +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.7 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.2 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CLE 4 – BOS 4 · full preview →
4. Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — TB +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is TB +1.5, an edge of about 0.8 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.5 runs while the book has hung 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
5. Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs — MIA +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is MIA +1.5, an edge of about 0.7 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.1 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIA 4 – CHC 4 · full preview →