MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 28, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Fresh run for Monday, September 28, 2026 — the computer flagged the games where its number is furthest from the market.
1. Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — PHI +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is PHI +1.5, an edge of about 1.2 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.7 runs against the posted 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.2 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PHI 4 – ATL 5 · full preview →
2. Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — BOS +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BOS +1.5, an edge of about 0.8 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 9.3 runs while the book has hung 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BOS 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
3. Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres — CHC +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is CHC +1.5, an edge of about 1.1 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.2 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.7 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 74% · projected CHC 4 – SD 4 · full preview →
4. Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — HOU -1.5 Lean
Where the book sits at -1.5 on HOU, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is HOU -1.5, an edge of about 0.1 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 8. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 59% · projected CWS 3 – HOU 5 · full preview →